Adding these up and dividing by 5 the average probability of a horse winning is 3101 10725 making the odds 7620: 3101 Also note the odds do not directly represent the real chances of horse winning but a perceived chance and the odds may go up or down depending on how much money has been bet. Get the latest NBA basketball news, scores, stats, standings, fantasy games, and more from ESPN. Here are the average win rates for the wagering public’s favorite, on average, at racetracks across the nation: Favorites Win 35% of the time Favorites Place (run 1st or 2nd) 55% of the time Favorites Show (run 1st, 2nd or 3rd) 69% of the time. On average favorites win about 35% of horse races. But, that win percentage can fluctuate based on the distance, surface, class, etc. For example, favorites are more likely to win dirt races than turf races. Another thing that will obviously make a big difference in the win%.

The favourite in a horse race is the shortest priced runner in the odds market. Visit here to learn more about horse racing odds. The theory behind a horse racing favourite is it has the most likelychance of winning the race however as all followers of the sport will know this is far from always being the case.

Contents

What makes a favourite

There are so many factors that can contribute to a horse being favourite in any given race. These range from obviousthings such as previous form of the horses competing to more reactional favouritism created by word of mouth such as favourable word coming fromthe trainer of the horse. The shorter the price of the favourite the more likely it is its position in the market is derived from form actuallyshown on the racecourse. Its worth remembering something has to be top of the market so in races where there is little between the major playershorses may well switch places in favouritism right up till the off.

Favourite types

There are three types of favourite description you may see, these vary only in terms of the number of runners withfavouritism status. These are as following -

• Clear favourites. Indicated by an F (for example 2/1F) signifying this horse was clear at the head of the market.
• Joint favourites. The display will show JF (for example 3/1JF) meaning this horse and one other were joint top in the market.
• Co favourites. Signified by CF (for example 4/1CF) this shows the horse was one of at least three who were all sharing favouritism.

False favourites

Here is where hindsight is often used, because of course after the race its easy to say 'no way it should have been favourite'. The aim of punters is to try and distinguish the factors commonly associated with horses who are incorrectlyat the head of the market and therefore perhaps underpriced and worthy of taking on. Some of these factors can include the following -

• The form of the favourites previous win has worked out badly.
• Competing horses have previously beaten or came very close to the favourite in similar circumstances.
• Collateral form does not justify favouritism
• The horse has ran too many times or risen too high in the weights and has peaked
• Despite boasting excellent form the favourite has not shown enough under todays conditions
• Hype - when its all down to talk and heresay, can you trust where its coming from?

Additional favourites comments

Although a commonly sourced set of statistics, it is worth recognising the actual odds of the favourites for certain types of races are generally shorter than others. Therefore although a commonly spoken statistic of favourites going well in certain circumstances may to an extent be true, it does not actually mean anything worthwhile from a betting perspective. Take for example two jockeys, one of whom has a 50% strike rate on favourites while the other has only a 25% strike rate - this is only meaningful if they have competed on horses in a comparable price range.

The key to finding favourites who are consistently worth either backing or taking on is to identify a like-for-like scenariowhere you can clearly spot, justify and explain the reasoning behind your support or laying of this particular favourite type with solid statistical evidence over a reasonable period of time. There are several good systems exploiting these situations but they are often short-lived due to the popularity of favourites and the fact bookmakers are always second-guessing punters.

Horse Racing Favourite Statistics

There is a section focusing on favourites in the dedicated directory of horse racing statistics,here you will find numerous facts and figures in relation to the favourite in various tests.

Favourites in the horse racing systems builder.

With the Favourites setting, you can specify favouritism status of the horse. Favourites are horses that started as clear favourite, Joint Favourites are horses that started as a favourite with same price as one other horse. Co-Favourites are horses that started with same price as two or more horses.

• Selecting Favourites & Co-Favourites limits query to horses that started as co-fav or fav. Joint favs would not be included.
• Selecting Co-Favourites only will include only Co-Favourites in your query. Clear favourites and joint favourites would be excluded.
• Selecting Favourites in the Favourites (LR) setting limits query to horses that started as favourite on their last run.

Starting Price Of Favourite

Here you can breakdown/include only races that had a favourite within your specified price range.

• Setting between 2/1 & 4/1 limits your query to only races where the shortest priced horse in the race (fav or joint fav etc) was equal to or greater than 2/1 and less than or equal to 4/1
• Setting between 10/11 and 10/11 limits your query to only races which had a 10/11 priced favourite

When the betting odds indicate that a UFC fight is a mismatch, does that usually mean that it is? This article is written to prove that it does.

The goal of this article is to help influence profitable betting decisions. It succeeds by including data on how big favorites perform on fight totals.

What is a big favorite? A big favorite is when a fighter has odds of -300, or wider, to win. Therefore, in terms of percentages, a big favorite means that a fighter’s implied odds of winning are 75% or more.

What are fight totals? A fight total is a bet on whether a fight will end before or after a certain length of time (1.5 rounds, 2.5 rounds, 3.5 round, or 4.5 rounds).

Here are some questions that this post will answer:

1. How often does an under cash when the matchup has a big favorite?

2. How often does an under cash when the matchup doesn’t have a big favorite?

3. How much more likely is an under going to happen when the fight totals are set at 2.5 rounds instead of 1.5 rounds, when a matchup involves a big favorite?

4. Are female big favorites more likely to cash the under than females that are not big favorites?

5. How do all the divisions compare in fight total statistics, when it involves UFC matchups with a big favorite?

[RECOMMENDED ARTICLE: MMA Betting Checklist: 25 Questions to Accurately Predict Winners]

All of this analysis is solely concerned with data on the UFC promotion.

All UFC betting lines for over/unders (also known as fight totals) can be found at 5Dimes. However, these lines don’t come out until a few days before the start of an upcoming UFC event.

How often does an under cash when the matchup has a big favorite?

The quick answer is 49.1% (105/214). That statistic takes into account data from UFC Fight Night 111 to UFC Fight Night 147, which is the past 71 UFC events. So, about half of the time, a matchup with a big favorite will result in a finish before the lined fight total. This result includes the sum of all the over and under variations (1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5 rounds).

What makes this statistic hold any value? What is value in this context? Value is when the probability of occurrence is greater than the implied odds specified from betting odds. The reason it holds value is because statistics are good for benchmarks. They help compute the trend of future probability by comparing the record of the past.

Ultimately, the value in knowing that big favorites cash the under 49.1% of the time is that you can use this information for future decisions. For example, the American odds for 49.1% is +104. Knowing that, I’ll be a lot more hesitant to bet an under that’s a -200.

How often does an under cash for UFC betting, when the matchup doesn’t have a big favorite?

To gain a better perspective of how big 49.1% is, let’s see what the other side of the coin reveals.

During the same span of UFC events (71), the under cashes 37.8% of the time, when fights don’t have big favorites. The under is 11.3% more likely to occur (win/cash) when a big favorite is involved. That’s enough to consider a big favorite more of a finishing threat.

Intuitively, this makes sense. The wider the perceived margin in skill by oddsmakers, the more likely that margin results in a stoppage win. In other words, more finishes will result in more under bets cashing.

Why is this statistic involving a 11.3% differential meaningful? If it’s possible to increase the chances for success in any endeavor by over 11%, why not take it? In UFC betting, you need every percent you can get. Every advantage equals more profit. Let me rephrase that, every statistical advantage equals more systematic profit.

“… every statistical advantage equals more systematic profit.”

Although the sample sizes are different, the point of this comparison is to see how big favorites and non-big favorites performed on fight totals during the same amount of UFC cards, not fights. The reason for that is there are only an average of 3.0 big favorites per card (214/71) compared to 9.0 non-big favorites per card (638/71).

If the sample sizes were to be the same, one would have to compare years of big favorites data to months of non-big favorite data. Because the sport has evolved so much over the past few years, the data would be less meaningful to compare a big favorite from 3 years ago to a non-big favorite from 3 months ago.

To derive even more value from the previous statistic, you can subtract these numbers by 100% to get how often the over cashes. So, the result on the over for non-big favorites is 62.2% (100.0-37.8).

We now have a benchmark for the over and under for matchups with or without a big favorite, but how can we appraise different fight totals for value?

How much more likely is an under going to happen when the fight totals are set at 2.5 rounds instead of 1.5 rounds, when a matchup involves a big favorite?

The picture below describes how likely the over/under 1.5 rounds cashes compared to the 2.5 round prop. As you can see, it would be more financially responsible to bet the under 2.5 and the over 1.5, when a big favorite is facing a big underdog.

How do all the divisions compare in fight total statistics, when it involves UFC matchups with a big favorite?

As you can see, most data points don’t have a sample size worth attaching any meaning to. Since the past 71 UFC events has only had 214 big favorites, and there are 12 different divisions, there are not enough data points to go around.

Although these sample sizes are small, a few divisions have some telling statistics. In order to highlight them, I boxed the most noteworthy ones in red.

The over 1.5 rounds prop on UFC featherweight big favorites have won 7 out of the past 9 times. Knowing this, I would avoid betting the under 1.5 rounds prop when a matchup includes a featherweight big favorite.

Are female big favorites more likely to cash the under than females that are not big favorites?

Stats On Winning Favorites 2019

Yes! From the same time frame used above (UFC Fight Night 111 to UFC Fight Night 147), there have been 33 UFC matchups with a female big favorite. Out of those 33 fights, the under cashed 17 times. That is a rate of 51.5%.

Now, how often does a bet on the under win when the female matchup doesn’t include a woman that’s a big favorite?

What Percentage Of Odds On Favourites Win

From UFC Fight Night 111 to UFC Fight Night 147, there have been 96 such matchups. From those 96 contests, only 23 of them payed out on the under. That is a minuscule rate of 24.0%.

I expect the gap between 51.5% and 24.0% to close as I log more female big favorite matchups, but I see the statistical advantage to continue to exist.

What makes these statistics impressive and potentially lucrative is that oddsmakers and UFC bettors expect the majority of female matchups to go to decision. Because of this expectation, the betting odds that a female UFC fight will make it under the designated fight total are usually around +200.

Stats On Winning Favorites Ncaa Basketball

There is a lot of value on a +200, if the probability of occurrence has historically averaged to be 51.5%. So, make sure to take advantage of those opportunities!

Summary

Stats On Winning Favorites Florida Lottery

Here is a quick rundown of what I described in this UFC betting article:

1. When betting an under, favor a matchup with a big favorite.

Stats On Winning Favorites College Football

2. When betting an under, in a matchup with a big favorite, favor the over on a 1.5 rounds line and the under on a 2.5 rounds. Obvious, I know!

3. Female big favorites are more likely to cash a bet on the under than a matchup that doesn’t have a big favorite.